Tuesday, 9 April 2019
Sunday, 7 April 2019
The Modi wave is a misnomer says Pranoy Roy
The Modi wave is a misnomer says Pranoy Roy
The veteran psephologist gets together with Dorab R. Sopariwala to decipher the upcoming elections
Prannoy Roy has been synonymous with elections since 1980. He pioneered opinion polls in India and introduced psephology to the country. His polls and commentaries are valued for their objectivity and precision. He is also the co-founder of NDTV.
Dorab R. Sopariwala, an editorial adviser with NDTV, is a fellow of the Royal Statistical Society and has been involved with opinion polling for four decades now.
Roy and Sopariwala have made TV viewing an exciting experience during election season with their reporting, number-crunching and analysis. They have distilled their experience in decoding the Indian elections in a new book, The Verdict: Decoding India’s Elections. Excerpts from an interview:
You make this point in the book about the hidden conservative voter. Given all the noise that the Indian right wing makes, does it hold true for our country too?
PR: Probably not. From my experience, in fact, it is the opposite. In the sense that the main support of the BJP comes from the middle and upper-middle sections of the society, and from men. They are generally much more vocal. They will always turn up in the crowd and quite volubly share their views and that kind of intimidates people around. Among the poorest, the Scheduled Castes, and especially the Muslims, there is a fear factor. Once we went into a Dalit village, and we were generally chatting with people there. We asked them who they were voting for, and they said BJP, BJP… We spent a lot of time with them, had tea, and after a while, they all started laughing. We asked them why. ‘What we told you earlier was all nonsense… We thought you were some BJP politicians or something… But none of us is BJP.’ In India, there is no hidden conservative voter.
Is there a risk in India of over-reporting BJP support?
PR: Yes. We have found that in our surveys.
DS: In America for instance, the upper-class conservative voters are the ones who are quiet. The lower class, factory workers and all, are very vocal. In India, the upper-class conservative voters are not all quiet while the lower caste voters in general are muted.
Alliances are very critical in this election. When parties make an alliance, do all their respective voters add up to form one unit, or is there anything beyond arithmetic at play?
PR: When parties form alliances, not only do their voters come and vote for the alliance, they in fact get an additional share of votes because of the momentum they have created by forming the alliance.
DS: So, when the PMK contests all alone in Tamil Nadu, it might not win any seats. But when it is in an alliance — we are not talking about the Communists and the BJP fighting together, we are talking of parties that have virtually no ideological differences but are dominated by different leaders — they get an extra bump, as people perceive they have a higher chance of winning. So two plus two could become five in the case of alliances.
PR: There is this conventional wisdom that Mayawati’s supporters will vote for SP but SP’s supporters will not vote for BSP. But there is no evidence for that at all.
You mention in the book how most elections in India have been landslides. Do you expect 2019 to be a landslide too?
PR: When we talk of landslides we are talking of State-level results. The results of the Lok Sabha as a whole may not be a landslide, but in each State, it could be a one-sided affair 77% of the time. So, whenever you are doing that exercise, whoever you think is the winner in each State, the chances of that party winning a landslide is much higher than winning narrowly. Landslides are more common in Lok Sabha elections State-wise, but not overall landslides. For example, in TN, one side sweeps and then the other side sweeps.
You talk of ‘homogeneous swing zones’ — regions that show similar voting behaviour. Do the regions that voted the BJP in 2014 — western, northern and central India — constitute a homogeneous swing zone?
PR: Homogenous swing zones are smaller than States — within States, we often have two or three homogenous swing zones. Let’s take Karnataka. Southern Karnataka is Vokkaligas and north is Lingayats. They tend to go differently in terms of their swings. We identify homogeneous swing zones not based on geography of caste, but on data. Once we see a swing zone, we see the underlying social or economic factors at work there.
Though the BJP appears to be doing uniformly well across multiple States, there are regions within these States that have distinct political behaviour...
PR: Exactly.
DS: For example, eastern UP and western UP have very different social compositions. What motivates eastern UP may not touch western UP. In Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, Telengana and coastal Andhra used to be different swing zones.
How sound is the notion of a rural-urban divide as a national phenomenon in understanding voter behaviour?
PR: Again, there is nothing like a national phenomenon. The Lok Sabha election is a federation of State elections. Each State is very different from another. In some States there is an urban-rural divide, in some others it is not there. Overall, the only thing that you can say from the data is that the rural turnout is much higher than urban. Rural women are voting in much higher numbers than urban women. There is no pattern across States of party-wise differentiation between urban and rural voters.
So what was called a Modi wave in 2014 was an aggregate of several regions where the BJP did well?
PR: When you talk about the Modi wave, I think it is a misnomer. He got a lot of seats, but the party won 31% of the votes. And the predominant reason for that victory was a divided opposition. Nowhere in the world will it be called a wave.
The veteran psephologist gets together with Dorab R. Sopariwala to decipher the upcoming elections
Prannoy Roy has been synonymous with elections since 1980. He pioneered opinion polls in India and introduced psephology to the country. His polls and commentaries are valued for their objectivity and precision. He is also the co-founder of NDTV.
Dorab R. Sopariwala, an editorial adviser with NDTV, is a fellow of the Royal Statistical Society and has been involved with opinion polling for four decades now.
Roy and Sopariwala have made TV viewing an exciting experience during election season with their reporting, number-crunching and analysis. They have distilled their experience in decoding the Indian elections in a new book, The Verdict: Decoding India’s Elections. Excerpts from an interview:
You make this point in the book about the hidden conservative voter. Given all the noise that the Indian right wing makes, does it hold true for our country too?
PR: Probably not. From my experience, in fact, it is the opposite. In the sense that the main support of the BJP comes from the middle and upper-middle sections of the society, and from men. They are generally much more vocal. They will always turn up in the crowd and quite volubly share their views and that kind of intimidates people around. Among the poorest, the Scheduled Castes, and especially the Muslims, there is a fear factor. Once we went into a Dalit village, and we were generally chatting with people there. We asked them who they were voting for, and they said BJP, BJP… We spent a lot of time with them, had tea, and after a while, they all started laughing. We asked them why. ‘What we told you earlier was all nonsense… We thought you were some BJP politicians or something… But none of us is BJP.’ In India, there is no hidden conservative voter.
Is there a risk in India of over-reporting BJP support?
PR: Yes. We have found that in our surveys.
DS: In America for instance, the upper-class conservative voters are the ones who are quiet. The lower class, factory workers and all, are very vocal. In India, the upper-class conservative voters are not all quiet while the lower caste voters in general are muted.
Alliances are very critical in this election. When parties make an alliance, do all their respective voters add up to form one unit, or is there anything beyond arithmetic at play?
PR: When parties form alliances, not only do their voters come and vote for the alliance, they in fact get an additional share of votes because of the momentum they have created by forming the alliance.
DS: So, when the PMK contests all alone in Tamil Nadu, it might not win any seats. But when it is in an alliance — we are not talking about the Communists and the BJP fighting together, we are talking of parties that have virtually no ideological differences but are dominated by different leaders — they get an extra bump, as people perceive they have a higher chance of winning. So two plus two could become five in the case of alliances.
PR: There is this conventional wisdom that Mayawati’s supporters will vote for SP but SP’s supporters will not vote for BSP. But there is no evidence for that at all.
You mention in the book how most elections in India have been landslides. Do you expect 2019 to be a landslide too?
PR: When we talk of landslides we are talking of State-level results. The results of the Lok Sabha as a whole may not be a landslide, but in each State, it could be a one-sided affair 77% of the time. So, whenever you are doing that exercise, whoever you think is the winner in each State, the chances of that party winning a landslide is much higher than winning narrowly. Landslides are more common in Lok Sabha elections State-wise, but not overall landslides. For example, in TN, one side sweeps and then the other side sweeps.
You talk of ‘homogeneous swing zones’ — regions that show similar voting behaviour. Do the regions that voted the BJP in 2014 — western, northern and central India — constitute a homogeneous swing zone?
PR: Homogenous swing zones are smaller than States — within States, we often have two or three homogenous swing zones. Let’s take Karnataka. Southern Karnataka is Vokkaligas and north is Lingayats. They tend to go differently in terms of their swings. We identify homogeneous swing zones not based on geography of caste, but on data. Once we see a swing zone, we see the underlying social or economic factors at work there.
Though the BJP appears to be doing uniformly well across multiple States, there are regions within these States that have distinct political behaviour...
PR: Exactly.
DS: For example, eastern UP and western UP have very different social compositions. What motivates eastern UP may not touch western UP. In Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, Telengana and coastal Andhra used to be different swing zones.
How sound is the notion of a rural-urban divide as a national phenomenon in understanding voter behaviour?
PR: Again, there is nothing like a national phenomenon. The Lok Sabha election is a federation of State elections. Each State is very different from another. In some States there is an urban-rural divide, in some others it is not there. Overall, the only thing that you can say from the data is that the rural turnout is much higher than urban. Rural women are voting in much higher numbers than urban women. There is no pattern across States of party-wise differentiation between urban and rural voters.
So what was called a Modi wave in 2014 was an aggregate of several regions where the BJP did well?
PR: When you talk about the Modi wave, I think it is a misnomer. He got a lot of seats, but the party won 31% of the votes. And the predominant reason for that victory was a divided opposition. Nowhere in the world will it be called a wave.
CURRICULUM VITAE
DR. MANMOHAN SINGH
EX-PRIME MINISTER OF INDIA
ACADEMIC RECORD
1962 D. Phil., Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
Topic: India’s Export Trends and Prospects for SelfSustained Growth. [Published by Clarendon Press,
Oxford, 1964]
1957 Economic Tripos [First Class honours], University of
Cambridge
1954 M.A. Economics, Panjab University – First Class with
first position in the University
1952 B.A. Economics(Hons.), Panjab University – Second
Class with first position in the University
1950 Intermediate Panjab University – First Class with first
position in the University
1948 Matriculation, Panjab University – First class
PRIZES AND AWARDS
2000 Conferred Annasaheb Chirmule Award by the W.LG.
alias Annasaheb Chirmule Trust setup by United
Western Bank Limited, Satara, Maharashtra
1999 Received H.H. Kanchi Sri Paramacharya Award for
Excellence from Shri R. Venkataraman, former
President of India and Patron, The Centenarian Trust
1999 Fellow of the National Academy of Agricultural
Sciences,New Delhi.
1997 Conferred Lokmanya Tilak Award by the Tilak Smarak
Trust, Pune
1997 Received Justice K.S. Hegde Foundation Award for
the year 1996
1997 Awarded Nikkei Asia prize for Regional Growth by the Nihon Keizai Shimbun Inc. (NIKKEI), publisher of
Japan’s leading business daily
1996 Honorary Professor, Delhi School of
Economics,University of Delhi, Delhi
1995 Jawaharlal Nehru Birth Centenary Award of the Indian Science Congress Association for 1994-95
1994 Asiamoney Award, Finance Minister of the Year
1994 Elected Distinguished Fellow, London School of
Economics, Centre for Asia Economy, Politics and
Society
1994 Elected Honorary Fellow, Nuffield College, University of
Oxford, Oxford, U.K.
1994 Honorary Fellow, All India Management Association
1993 Euromoney Award, Finance Minister of the year
1993 Asiamoney Award, Finance Minister of the Year
1987 Padma Vibhushan Award by the President of India
1986 National Fellow, national Institute of Education,
N.C.E.R.T.
1985 Elected President, Indian economic Association
1982 Elected Honorary Fellow, st. John’s College, Cambridge,
1982 Elected Honorary Fellow, Indian Institute of bankers
1976 Honorary Professor, Jawaharlal Nehru University,
New Delhi
1957 Elected Wrenbury Scholar, University of Cambridge,
U.K.
1955 Awarded Wright’s Prize for distinguished
performance, & St. John’s college, Cambridge, U.K.
1956 Awarded Adam Smith Prize, University of Cambridge,
U.K.
1954 Uttar Chand Kapur Medal, Panjab university, for
standing first in M.A.(Economics), panjab University,
Chandigarh
1952 University Medal for standing First in B.A.
Hon.(Economics), panjab University, Chandigarh
Recipient of Honorary Degrees of D.Litt. from :
- Panjab University, Chandigarh
- Guru Nanak University, Amritsar
- Delhi University, delhi
- Sri Venkateswara University, Tirupathi
- University of Bologna, Italy
- University of Mysore, Mysore
- Chaudhary charan Singh Haryana Agricultural University, Hisar
(D.Sc)
- Kurukshetra University
- Thapar Institute of Engineering & Technology, patiala (D.Sc)
- Nagarjuna University, Nagarjunanagar
- Osmania University, Hyderabad
- University of Roorkee, Roorkee (Doctor of Social Sciences)
- Doctor of Laws by the University of Alberta, Edmonton, Canada
- Dr. Bhimrao Ambedkar University (formerly Agra University) -
Doctor Letters degree
- Indian School of Mines, Dhanbad (Deemed University) D.Sc.
(Honoris Causa)
- Pt. Ravishankar Shukla University, Raipur
WORK EXPERIENCE AND POSITIONS HELD
May 22, 2004 – 2014: Prime Minister of India
March 21, 1998 – May 22,2004: Leader of Opposition, Rajya
Sabha (Council of States)
Parliament of India
June, 2001: Re-elected as member of Rajya
Sabha for a Term of six years
August 1, 1996 - Dec 4, 1997: Chairman, Parliamentary Standing
Committee on Commerce, Rajya Sabha
June 21, 1991- May 15, 1996: Finance Minister of India
June, 1995: Re-elected Member of Rajya
Sabha for a term of six years
September, 1991: Elected Member of Rajya Sabha
March 1991-June 1991: Chairman, University Grants
Commission
Dec 1990 – March 1991: Advisor to Prime Minister of India
on Economic Affairs
August 1987 – Nov 1990: Secretary General and
Commissioner, South Commission
Jan 1985- July 1987: Dy. Chairman, Planning
Commission of India
Sept 1982 – Jan 1985: Governor, Reserve Bank of India
April 1980 – Sept 1982: Member-Secretary, Planning
Commission, India
Nov.1976 – April 1980: Secretary, Ministry of Finance
Dept. of Economic Affairs,
Government of India
Member [Finance], Atomic Energy
Commission, Govt. of India
Member[Finance], Space
Commission, Govt. of India
1972 – 1976: Chief Economic Adviser, Ministry
of Finance, India
1971 – 1972: Economic Adviser, Ministry of
Foreign Trade, India
1969 – 1971: Professor of International Trade,
Delhi School of Economics, Delhi
University, India
1966 – 1969: UNCTAD, United Nations
Secretariat, New York
Chief, Financing for Trade Section
1966 : Economic Affairs Officer
1957 – 1965 : Panjab University, Chandigarh
1963-65 : Professor of Economics
1959-63 : Reader in Economics
1957-59:Senior Lecturer in
economics
OTHER ASSIGNMENTS
Leader of the Indian delegation to the Commonwealth
Heads of Government Meeting, Cyprus (1993)
Leader of the Indian delegation to the Human Rights
World Conference, Vienna (1993)
Governor of India on the Board of Governors of the IMF
and the International Bank of Reconstruction &
Development (1991-95)
Appointed by Prime Minister of India as Member,
Economic Advisory Council to the Prime minister (1983-
84)
Chairman, India Committee of the Indo-japan ;Joint
Study Committee (1980-83)
- Leader, Indian Delegation to :
Indo-Soviet Monitoring Group Meeting (1982)
Indo-Soviet Joint Planning Group Meeting (1980-
82)
Aid India Consortium Meetings (1977-79)
- Member Indian Delegation to :
South-South Consultation, New Delhi (1982)
Cancun Summit on North-South Issues (1981)
Aid-India Consortium Meetings, Paris (1973-79)
Annual Meetings of IMF, IBRD & Commonwealth
Finance Ministers (1972-79)
Third Session of UNCTAD, Santiago (April-May
1972)
Meetings of UNCTAD Trade & Development
Board, Geneva (May 1971 – July 1972)
Ministerial Meeting of Group of 77, Lima
(Oct.1971)
- Deputy for India on IMF Committee of Twenty on
International Monetary Reform (1972 – 74)
- Associate, Meetings of IMF Interim Committee and
Joint Fund-Bank Development Committee (1976-80,
1982-85)
- Alternate Governor for India, Board of Governors of
IBRD (1976-80)
- Alternate Governor for India, Board of Governors of
the IMF (1982-85)
- Alternate Governor for India, Board of Governors,
Asian Development Bank, Manila (1976-80)
- Director, Reserve Bank of India (1976-80)
- Director, Industrial Development Bank of India (1976-
80)
- Participated in Commonwealth Prime Ministers
Meeting, Kingston (1975)
- Represented Secretary;-General UNCTAD at several
inter-governmental meetings including :
Second Session of UNCTAD, 1968
Committee on Invisibles & Financing Related to
Trade, Consultant to UNCTAD, ESCAP and
Commonwealth Secretariat
- Member, International Organizations :
Appointed as Member by the Secretary-General,
United Nations of a Group of Eminent Persons to
advise him on Financing for Development
(December, 2000)
PUBLICATIONS
(i) Author of book “India’s Export Trends and
Prospects for Self-Sustained Growth”
[Clarendon Press, Oxford University, 1964]
(ii) Have published a large number of articles in
economic journals
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
S/o. Shri Gurmukh Singh
Born on 26th September, 1932
Married in 1958 to Smt. Gursharan Kaur
Have three daughters
Dear PM Modi, Take A Trip From Wayanad To Rampur Via Chicago
Dear PM Modi, Take A Trip From Wayanad To Rampur Via Chicago BloombergQuintOpinion Raghav Bahl @Raghav_Bahl Apr 05 2019, 7:27 PM Apr 05 2019, 7:27 PM
Read more at: https://www.bloombergquint.com/elections/dear-pm-modi-take-a-trip-from-wayanad-to-rampur-via-chicago?utm_source=whatsapp&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=whatsapp_feed
Copyright © BloombergQuint
WE, THE HINDUS OF INDIA, have now solemnly resolved to constitute India into a SOVEREIGN MAJORITARIAN REPUBLIC, and to secure to all its citizens JUSTICE, since Hindus are incapable of committing terror crimes, they should never be tried for that LIBERTY, by disallowing Hindus from contesting in a Muslim-majority constituency FRATERNITY, such that Hindus should awaken and dominate the Muslims
Read more at: https://www.bloombergquint.com/elections/dear-pm-modi-take-a-trip-from-wayanad-to-rampur-via-chicago?utm_source=whatsapp&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=whatsapp_feed
Copyright © BloombergQuint
Read more at: https://www.bloombergquint.com/elections/dear-pm-modi-take-a-trip-from-wayanad-to-rampur-via-chicago?utm_source=whatsapp&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=whatsapp_feed
Copyright © BloombergQuint
WE, THE HINDUS OF INDIA, have now solemnly resolved to constitute India into a SOVEREIGN MAJORITARIAN REPUBLIC, and to secure to all its citizens JUSTICE, since Hindus are incapable of committing terror crimes, they should never be tried for that LIBERTY, by disallowing Hindus from contesting in a Muslim-majority constituency FRATERNITY, such that Hindus should awaken and dominate the Muslims
Read more at: https://www.bloombergquint.com/elections/dear-pm-modi-take-a-trip-from-wayanad-to-rampur-via-chicago?utm_source=whatsapp&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=whatsapp_feed
Copyright © BloombergQuint
Friday, 5 April 2019
Tuesday, 2 April 2019
Let Patriotism Overcome
My father had seen the freedom struggle right since the 1920s I can try and imagine the exhilaration he must have felt listening to Nehru's "tryst with destiny" speech "at the stroke of midnight" 14/15 August, 1947.
His patriotic fervour in the post-independence years remained with him always inspite and despite the swings of political brinkmanship and upheavals during the Emergency years. I remember as a high school kid, campaigning and doing my bit for the Jaiprakash Narayan led revolution which led to the formation of the Janata party led coalition government.
When we moved to our new house in 1978, for some years we lived with the shabbily distempered walls and their chalk-like 'exudous' clinging onto our clothes and hands, when we brushed them accidentally or leaned against them.
But not for long. Father had been toying with the idea for some time and provisioning for it, I guess and soon he commissioned our family carpenter/painter all-in-one vinayak to paint and furnish the house.
The main hall was a light golden brown colour, the brightest of all the rooms.
But his choice of the colours for the other rooms made a statement few would care to emulate or even think of.
The bedroom was a deep SAFFRON the ceiling WHITE. Then came the passage which was tiled BLUE.
And then came the Kitchen which was painted in deep GREEN.
Father was incorporating the colours of the national flag of our country in the colour-scheme of the house.
Plastic emulsion, the best available at that time was used and Vinayak was instructed to repeat layers of the paint to get the right hue ,shade and depth.
Every year, just before the holy month of Ramadan, father would set about with a ladder, bucket of water with Lux soap dissolving in it and several wiping cloths, 'washing' every inch of the painted ceilings and walls of the house.
The exercise would continue for a whole day and sometimes the next day too. We would all pitch in and do our bit. At the end of it the walls would look sparkling and new, the fragrance of Lux soap lingering for many days to come.
This was an annual ritual which continued year after year until father's death in 1997. Thereafter, my doctor brother moved out with his family to a house of his own. The responsibilities of looking after the house fell on me whilst mother took care of Rukaiya (Facebook #RukaiyasPage ) my sister with special needs with a history of medically induced spasticity with mental retardation.
Mother expired in 2012. The house was maintained with necessary cleaning activities like sweeping and mopping of floors and occasional brushing for cobwebs, but after mothers death it became increasingly difficult to maintain the house, especially after my sister Rukaiya suffered a shattering fall which fractured her left femur. This was in Nov-Dec 2012.
There were fewer opportunities to clean the house as my 24x7 responsibilities with sister Rukaiya left me little time..
The years passed and then the cummjnity 2017 Upliftment program came to our rescue. Cupboards, safes, files, papers, clothes, fixtures - everything in the house was examined and there was a kind of mass disposal, even of furniture. The cleaning took place next and then the painting.
Although Lustre paint was suggested, it was decided to use distemper.
A bright creamish brown colour for the Hall, white ceilng. There was an attempt to have the same colour for the whole house. But I put my foot down and insisted on retaining father's original colour scheme
But the result was to put it mildly, disappointing.
The Saffron of the bedroom degraded to PINK.
And the Green of the Kitchen was hues lighter than the earlier Green.
Moreover since it was distemper I could not wash or wipe clean the stains made by Rukaiya.
In today's social and political context these colours of our national flag have become all the more important and I shall strive my best to restore them as during my father's times.
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